UFC 312’s Best Betting Props, Parlays & Picks

UFC 312 is live this weekend (Sat., Feb. 8, 2025), featuring a pay-per-view (PPV) main event of Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland for the UFC Middleweight title. Checkout the odds for that title fight (and much more) right here!

UFC 312 is happening this weekend (Sat., Feb. 8, 2025) inside Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event is a rematch for UFC’s 185-pound title with division champion, Dricus du Plessis, meeting Sean Strickland (who has asked that this be a “no takedowns” match).

UFC 312’s co-main event has gold on the line, too, with Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez. Zhang last fought at UFC 300, while the often snake-bit Suarez sat out all of 2024.

The rest of the card… kinda yikes.

Rounding out the second PPV of 2025 is Justin Tafa vs. Talisson Teixeira (coming immediately off Contender Series), Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato (in his second fight post-Contender Series) and Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado (1-2 in UFC).

To be fair, the “Prelims” undercard has some fun names. Jack Jenkins — who fights Gabriel Santos — and Tom Nolan — who fights Viacheslav Borshchev — have excited in their Octagon outings thus far. There’s also Wang Cong, who came into the promotion blazing, but was snuffed out in her second appearance.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 312 Main Card Money Line Odds

Dricus du Plessis (-210) vs. Sean Strickland (+170)

du Plessis defeated Strickland at UFC 297 in early 2024 to win UFC’s Middleweight crown. The fight ended in a split decision thanks to “dirty Canadian leftists.” All the judges gave Strickland the first and fifth rounds. Two of the three then scored the middle three rounds for du Plessis.

The only variance on the cards was Sal D’Amato giving Strickland the third (see it here).

The third round was tough to score with Strickland landing slightly more strikes (while head hunting) and du Plessis landing the harder shots (as he mixed up attacks to the head, body and legs). Personally, I scored that for du Plessis.

Since this fight, du Plessis has stopped Israel Adesanya (see it here) and Strickland frustrated Paulo Costa.

I have to go with DDP in this fight. Strickland’s style of anti-fighting, where he marches forward with pecking strikes designed to exhaust and befuddle more so than hurt is not new for du Plessis. And du Plessis, as we’ve seen, is the kind of guy who won’t be bullied around the cage by Strickland. He’ll gladly let Strickland come into his wheelhouse and throw his ugly (but hella powerful) punches, thus forcing Strickland into making backward steps.

I think we’re probably going to see a repeat of that first fight on Saturday, which would mean we are in for another decision and perhaps a very close one. The fight will be largely judged on the eye-test and I think du Plessis is just much easier on the eye than Strickland. Strickland is very good at what he does, but that’s harder to notice than Du Plessis being good at bombing forwards and landing hard punches.

du Plessis’ appealing style, and recent win over Adesanya, has him as a decent-sized favorite in this bout. Indeed, -210 isn’t too stingy to take straight up. DraftKings has him +100 with a -5.5 point spread, but this fight is way too close for me to consider taking du Plessis with a handicap.

The round total is set at 4.5 and the over is -188. That’s very tempting, since I don’t see either of these guys being finished. Strickland has just one stoppage win (Abus Magomedov — see it here) and one stoppage loss (Alex Pereira — see it here) in the last five years. du Plessis, meanwhile, has only one loss in his career and that was a technical knockout to Roberto Soldic in 2018, during a KSW Welterweight title bout.

You can get du Plessis at plus money in this bout if you pick win by decision … and that’s where I’m going.

I like du Plessis’ chances of landing the bigger shots throughout the fight and I think he’ll be able to use his takedowns to even greater affect than in their first fight (where he went six of 11).

The first fight was the first time du Plessis had ever fought for five rounds. Now, he has that experience on board (and he likely sees a decision as the most likely outcome here), I think he’ll be smart about spacing out his energy and go for takedowns specifically to win rounds.

Best bet: Dricus du Plessis via decision (+150)

Zhang Weili (-105) vs. Tatiana Suarez (-115)

I’m really glad that Suarez is getting a title shot at UFC 312. Since she breezed through The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) in 2016, it’s felt like she was a title challenger in the making. However, injuries have prevented her ever going on a sustained run of fights or getting booked against the biggest names in the division. Plenty of fighters have washed out of the top promotion because of similar situations. But, UFC brass decided to recognize what we all believe: that Suarez is a legit contender regardless of who she has fought and how active she has been.

Part of this is due to the lack of other contenders at 115 pounds. But, I do believe part of the decision is belief in Suarez’s talent and that she can be a tough test for the champion Zhang Weili.

The odds certainly reflect this.

Zhang last appeared at UFC 300, pasting her countrywoman Yan Xiaonan for a comfortable decision victory. Before that, she beat Amanda Lemos and stopped Carla Esparza with a crucifix (see it here). That win over Esparza won her the Strawweight belt for the second time in her career.

Suarez’s last fight was a submission over Jessica Andrade (see it here) in the summer of 2023. Before that, she submitted Montana De La Rosa. That win came after a four-year absence because of a neck injury. Before her injury, she looked unstoppable in getting wins over Alexa Grasso and Carla Esparza.

This is a great fight. Suarez is the best wrestler we’ve ever seen at 115 pounds. Zhang is the most powerful hitter we’ve ever seen in this weight class.

Zhang’s takedown defense is 50 percent, which is not great. Yan took her down on all three of her attempts in her last fight. Rose Namajunas went 2-2 in their second fight, too, which Zhang lost by split decision.

If Suarez goes perfect on takedowns this Saturday, that’s a wrap for the 35 year-old Zhang’s title reign.

Will Suarez be able to get those takedowns, while not getting laid out by an uppercut, though? In the past Suarez has been able to prevent women standing in front of her long enough to land anything meaningful. She has an incredibly meagre 1.38 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Her sig. strike defense is only 51 percent, though. That tells us just how few opportunities she gives opponents to throws punches at her.

Assuming Suarez is in top shape, I think we’re going to see her getting Zhang down early and often in this fight. Then it will be all about whether Zhang can get up. I have questions about that given her round five against Namajunas where she gave up 3:55 of control time.

With that in mind, my best bet is that Bruce Buffer says “And new” in the co-main event this weekend.

Best bet: Tatiana Suarez moneyline (-115)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Justin Tafa (+115) vs. Talisson Teixeira (-135)

The quality of the main card just dives off a cliff once we get to these fights, eh? Our appetizer for the two title fights is the 7-4 Tafa (coming off a loss) versus Teixeira, a recent Contender Series graduate. They’ve got this man fighting on the PPV main card on his entry-level contract.

Wow.

Teixeira punched his ticket to the big show by KO’ing Arthur Lopes in less than two minutes. That moved him to 7-0 on his career, with all wins coming via stoppage. All, but one, of those stoppages are from strikes.

Tafa is coming off a decision loss to Karl Williams. Before that, he TKO’d the very TKO’able Austen Lane (see it here). He also has a KO over Parker Porter (see it here).

Tafa is a stand-and-banger and he lost last time out due to being taken down seven times and being held on the ground for more than 10 minutes. He won’t have to worry about that stuff coming from Teixeira. What he gets from the Brazilian might be far more painful, though.

Teixeira is massive. He’s 6’7” (seven inches taller than Tafa) and he’ll have a ridiculous nine-inch reach advantage.

I think those metrics mean that Teixeira is going to be first to the punch in this fight. And that won’t be good for Tafa. Tafa has power, but I think he’s going to get touched up a bunch before he can get into his range.

Best bet: Talisson Teixeira moneyline (-135)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jimmy Crute (+135) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-160)

UFC certainly didn’t book this card with hopes of growing its fanbase “Down Under.” This is the second of three main card fights with an Australian as the underdog. Crute comes into UFC 312 having been stopped in three of his last four fights. Last time out, in 2023, he was submitted by an Alonzo Menifield guillotine (see it here). Before that, he was KO’d in 48 seconds by Jamahal Hill (see it here).

Bellato, meanwhile, also hasn’t competed since 2023. In his last fight, he earned a “Fight of the Night” bonus for his fun fight with Ihor Potieria, which ended in a technical knockout win (see it here). That was his first fight off of Contender Series.

Bellato is a striker. He’s got some great stats (6.47 significant strikes landed per-minute at 61 percent accuracy), but that’s mostly down to the level of competition he’s had in the Octagon.

Crute will be hoping to test Bellato’s takedown defense. Bellato is yet to be taken down in UFC, having faced seven attempts (four of which were from the scrub he beat on Contender Series).

I’m leaning Crute in this match-up, due to his experience and the belief that his wrestling game is much better than anything Bellato has faced before. The best name on Bellato’s record is Vitor Petrino (who has been woeful in his last two UFC fights). Petrino has stopped Bellato twice, once on Contender Series in 2022 and once on the regional scene.

Best bet: Jimmy Crute moneyline (+135)

Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images

Jake Matthews (-240) vs. Francisco Prado (+195)

Now this is good booking …

Matthews is a cult hero in Australia and he’s an exciting fighter. He’s the perfect guy to open up the main card. And he’s in a very winnable fight, too.

Prado, meanwhile, came into UFC undefeated, but lost his debut to Jamie Mullarkey in 2023 (Mullarkey is 1-3 since then). Prado then beat the terrible Ottman Azaitar by spinning elbow (see it here). In his last fight Prado lost a “Fight of the Night” to Daniel Zellhuber.

Matthews out-worked Phil Rowe in his last fight to win by decision (his 13th victory in the Octagon). That followed up from a loss to super prospect Michael Morales (via decision).

Matthews is a little better than Prado across the board. In striking, Matthews has a positive significant striking differential. Prado’s is negative (5.66 absorbed vs. 4.58 landed). Matthews isn’t a dedicated wrestler, but he’s much better than Prado (who has never landed a takedown in UFC and defended only 25 percent of those he’s faced).

I’m pretty confident that “Celtic Kid” will get one of the biggest roars of the night.

Best bet: Jake Matthews moneyline (-240)

UFC 312 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Jack Jenkins (+190) vs. Gabriel Santos (-235)

Jenkins looked great in his last fight, battering Herbert Burns with highly technical boxing and brutal leg kicks on route to a third round stoppage (see it here). Prior to this fight, he lost to Chepe Mariscal via injury.

That marked his first loss in the promotion.

Santos, meanwhile, is coming off a very impressive decision win over Yizha in Sept. 2024. Before that, he was knocked out by a David Onama uppercut (see that here). His UFC debut was to current Featherweight contender Lerone Murphy, which he lost by split decision.

Against Yizha, Santos showed a really well rounded game and that could spell trouble for Jenkins. Jenkins’ striking looks great, but he was taken down with ease by Burns.

Santos’ takedowns could nullify those nasty kicks from Jenkins. Without those kicks, I don’t think Jenkins has enough weapons to win this.

Santos should be able to take Jenkins down. And I think he will pose a serious submission threat on the ground and during transitions (Jenkins has lost twice to submission on the regional scene).

I’m really high on Santos and I can see him getting that takedown and overwhelming Jenkins on the ground. Because of that I like the under in this fight. This also covers me in case Jenkins is able to land something big early on.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+150)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Tom Nolan (+115) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (-135)

Nolan was a -1100 favorite against Alex Reyes in his last fight. He won, but it was by decision, and Reyes had his moments. Prior to that he was -500 against Victor Martinez. Martinez knocked Nolan down in the first before being finished with a knee. Nolan lost his UFC debut via technical knockout to Nikolas Motta. He earned his UFC contract with a knockout win over Bogdan Grad (a winner last weekend) on Contender Series.

He’s a slight underdog this time around, though. Borshchev gutted out a split decision win over James Llontop in his last fight. That followed a total dismantling he suffered at the hands of Chase Hooper in May.

Nolan, a very lanky Lightweight, has been very hittable in his career thus far and also a bit of a slow starter. He’s probably going to get hit by Borshchev (who is a good boxer and loves a body shot), but will he again weather that storm and earn a win?

Nolan will have a slight reach advantage over Santa Slav. He’s a volume striker. Whereas Borshchev is more selective. That being said, they both land their sig. strikes at a clip of around 50 percent. Nolan’s defense is concerning, though. He’s sub 50% on blocking sig. strikes.

Borschev is a harder hitter than Reyes and Martinez. If Nolan lets him find his range, I think Borschev might finally end any thoughts of Nolan being an interesting prospect in the division.

The round total is 1.5 for this fight. I think we’re going over that, given that both these guys can be slow starters.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-115)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Wang Cong (-525) vs. Bruna Brasil (+360)

What to make of Wang Cong?

She blew up on our radar thanks to a brutal knockout over Victoria Leonardo last year (see it here). That was her first appearance since coming off the Road to UFC circuit. She talked a great game after that fight and in the lead-up to her next one, against Gabriella Fernandes, going with the Joker face and pretending to shoot her opponent at the weigh-ins.

However, when Fernandes refused to bomb forward and instead waited for counter-striking opportunities, Wang seemed totally lost. She couldn’t attack without eating a counter and one of those shots would eventually put her down and lead to the submission loss (see it here).

The result made Wang’s pre-fight antics feel pretty cringe in retrospect.

Brasil is on an opposite trajectory from Wang.

Brasil — fresh off a change to camp du jour, Fighting Nerds — looked the best she’d ever looked in taking apart Molly McCann at UFC 304.

Despite how both these women looked in their last fights, Wang is the massive -525 favorite!

I’m baffled at these odds. Brasil just handled an aggressive fighter who loves to come forward, hurting her with body shots and grappling circles around her. Wang was just beat up by a woman who could hit a counter and out-grapple her.

Best bet: Bruna Brasil moneyline (+360)

Photo by David Benito/Getty Images

Aleksandre Topuria (-400) vs. Colby Thicknesse (+300)

Now we’re getting to the point of the card where the fighters are such unknown quantities, certainly at this level, that there’s simply not enough information to make an accurate prediction.

Despite that, we’re seeing some very big favorites/underdogs.

Topuria — brother of UFC Featherweight champion, Ilia Topuria — has only had six fights despite being 29-years-old. His signing with UFC is a favor to Ilia and he’s probably going to end up more Chinzo Machida than Nate Diaz when it comes to following your brother’s footsteps.

Initially, Topuria was booked against legitimate prospect, Cody Haddon. After Haddon withdrew, Topuria got Thicknesse. Thicknesse comes over to UFC and vacates his HEX Fight Series Bantamweight title. HEX is a pretty serious developer of Aussie/Kiwi MMA talent.

Topuria is the big favorite here despite having not fought since 2023. This fight is also at Bantamweight. Topuria’s last fight was at 139 pounds. His fight before that was at Featherweight.

You know what, I’m down with the Thicknesse.

Best bet: Colby Thicknesse (+300)

UFC 312 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Jonathan Micallef (+210) vs. Kevin Jousset (-260)

Micallef is coming off a submission win on Contender Series in Oct. 2024r. Before that he fought mostly in HEX Fight Series, winning the Welterweight title.

Jousset, meanwhile, was pounded by Bryan Battle at UFC Paris and stopped in the second round. That broke his two-fight UFC win streak. Jousset is also a veteran of HEX Fight Series. Jousset is a former Welterweight and Middleweight champ in that organization.

Micallef is a grapple-first guy. Jousset is a striker. Despite getting beat up by Battle, Jousset was able to stuff three takedown attempts.

Best bet: Kevin Jousset moneyline (-260)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Rongzhu (+180) vs. Kody Steele (-220)

Rongzhu lost via doctor’s stoppage last time out because of Chris Padilla hitting him with a perfect elbow that made his eye swell shut. Rongzhu had been on a three-fight win streak thanks to his exploits in Road to UFC.

Steele, meanwhile, is coming off a knockout (body shot) win on Contender Series. He’s mostly known for his grappling, though. He posses a legitimate black-belt via Rodrigo Cabral.

His wrestling and grappling should be far too much for Rongzhu.

Best bet: Kody Steele moneyline (-220)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Quillan Salkilld (-650) vs. Anshul Jubli (+425)

Salkilld is another guy coming straight off Contender Series. He’s 6-1 and a former champion in Eternal MMA (the only other Australian promotion of note).

Jubli, meanwhile, came off Road to UFC only to be KO’d by Mike Breeden in his last fight (see it here).

Salkilld will have a six-inch reach advantage in this one.

Best bet: Quillan Salkilld moneyline (-650)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Hyun Sung Park (-235) vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (+190)

Park is undefeated (9-0) and a winner of 2023’s Road to UFC season. He earned a bonus for stopping Shannon Ross with a liver shot in his proper UFC debut. He’s been out for more than one year, though, due to a knee injury.

Tumendemberel (who will be a total nightmare for me during my live play-by-play duties) is 8-1 after losing his post Road to UFC fight against Carlos Hernandez in Nov. 2024.

Park has won at this level, so that’s enough for me to pick him over Tumendemberel.

Best bet: Hyun Sung Park moneyline (-235)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 312 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action.

Two-fight parlay: Brasil to beat Cong, Thicknesse to beat Topuria – (+1677)

I like the two biggest underdogs on the card. Bruna Brasil looked very good against Molly McCann and she’ll have a similar problem to solve against Wang Cong (who was exposed as reckless and one dimensional in her last bout). We don’t know what Aleksandre Topuria can bring to the Octagon. He’s fighting outside of his weight class, after a long lay-off, against a natural, and active, Bantamweight.

Suarez to win by submission, round two – (+2500)

I’m going all in on Tatiana Suarez to win this fight and I think her best chance of doing that is with early takedown pressure and submissions. Over five rounds I think she might get broken down a little by the striking power of Zhang. Suarez’s wrestling is good enough to defeat Zhang’s takedown defense and I think her long frame will give her lots of angles to attack with chokes. Maybe she’ll snatch up a d’arce as Zhang tries to scramble to her feet.

Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland – Point to be Deducted – Yes (+2000)

Both these guys know this will be a close fight and both will be looking for every competitive advantage possible. Strickland knows he can’t get taken down and I can see him getting punished for a sneaky fence grab. Du Plessis is a powerful and voracious puncher, but he’s not the most accurate. I can see him getting penalized for punches to the back of the head. Of course all this happens in a world where referees actually deduct points instead of giving a warning, followed by a stern warning, followed by a “Oh, I didn’t see that.”

---

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 312 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN2/Disney+/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 312: “du Plessis vs. Strickland 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

This news first appeared on MMA Mania. Read the original article.